Halifax House Price Index September 2021

"It's become the norm now to see house-price growth into double-digit figures when contrasted with last year's figures. However, we might be about to start reaping what we've sown. We have inflation rearing its ugly head, tax rises and students having to pay back student loans at a lower threshold. This may be the start of prices beginning to level off. Why? The property market is only ever as strong as the new blood which comes in at the bottom. In almost every property chain the catalyst is always a first-time buyer. If they are poorer due to paying more away in tax and student loans it will inevitably have an effect on how much they can borrow to buy their own home. If they can't borrow enough then prices will naturally drift down to an equilibrium. This then filters all the way through the market and can act as a price depressant. Make no mistake, we've not seen the true financial impact of COVID or Brexit yet, and we have all the necessary and sufficient ingredients for a nasty Winter of discontent."

"We've all become a bit numb to record house price rises over the past 18 months, but it's quite possible that's all about to change. With the end of the stamp duty holiday, furlough being withdrawn, the increased cost of living indicated by the recent inflation numbers and of course the recent tax/NI increases, the forecast for house prices is looking a lot less favourable. Add in the usual Christmas slowdown and we can expect the property market to lose some of the wind from its sails in the months ahead."

"With the spring stampede for property now over and summer all but done the housing market may be returning to a semblance of normality. Prices probably reached their peak during the summer and are likely to show a slo down in growth as we head towards the end of the year. Buyer demand for property remains extremely high and this, coupled with a lack of supply, has been enough to maintain the forward momentum in prices. But uncertainty around the end of furlough and the increase in the cost of living, particularly around energy prices, is likely to have a drag effect on prices. "With borrowing costs at historic low levels and the availability of higher LTV mortgages set to remain, it is reasonable to expect prices not to be subdued for too long and 2022 has all the signs of being another bumper year."

"Fewer and fewer properties are coming onto the market now. I think we will see more of this going forward, especially heading into a quiet time of year for property sales, namely the run-up to Christmas. I think this will lead to some stabilisation of house prices going forward. The second half of the year is unlikely to be a mirror image of the first, when the market went off the scale."